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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 56.5

Win Probability

PHI
28.3%
NO
71.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.247 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.385 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.167 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
NO 30
Projected margin: NO by 7 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

PHI

Ronald Darby CB Out Knee
Jalen Mills CB Out Foot
Joshua Perkins TE Out Knee
Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring
Lane Johnson T Questionable Knee
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Knee

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Shoulder
Marcus Davenport DE Out Toe

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 7
–
NO 48

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:16 FG NO (9:16) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. PHI 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 03:16 TD NO (3:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 80-A.Carr for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0 PHI 0 – NO 9
  • Q2 12:13 TD NO (12:13) 22-M.Ingram right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NO 16
  • Q2 08:49 TD PHI (8:49) (Shotgun) 33-J.Adams left guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – NO 17
  • Q2 00:45 TD NO (:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-24-C.Graham, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Pass 15, YAC 0 PHI 7 – NO 23
  • Q3 11:26 TD NO (11:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 3 PHI 22 S.Jones (Hamstring), Questionable to Return PHI 7 – NO 30
  • Q3 05:39 TD NO (5:39) 22-M.Ingram left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO G 67 L.Warford injured on the play PHI 7 – NO 37
  • Q4 13:22 TD NO (13:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 41-A.Kamara for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 13 PHI 7 – NO 44
  • Q4 06:49 FG NO (6:49) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. PHI 7 – NO 48

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NO 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 7-T.Hill to NO 42 for 9 yards (57-D.Alexander). PENALTY on NO-59-V.Biegel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 33.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 91%

    (9:16) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 34%

    (8:13) 1-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to NO 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to PHI 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 30%

    (3:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to NO 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:44) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 41-A.Kamara to NO 26 for 13 yards (1-C.Johnston). PENALTY on NO-41-A.Kamara, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at NO 26.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 64%

    (13:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 41-A.Kamara for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 13

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 17-A.Jeffery (23-M.Lattimore). Injury Updates: PHI CB 32 R.Douglas Questionable to Return (knee); PHI LS 45 R.Lovato being evaluated for a head injury; NO G 67 L.Warford Probable to Return

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.08 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (6:49) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to PHI 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-G.Tate to PHI 35 for -2 yards (34-J.Hardee).