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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New Orleans Saints 38

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 41-A.Kamara to NO 26 for 13 yards (1-C.Johnston). PENALTY on NO-41-A.Kamara, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at NO 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.22 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model