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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(10:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model