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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New Orleans Saints 45

What Actually Happened

(11:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 17-A.Jeffery (23-M.Lattimore). Injury Updates: PHI CB 32 R.Douglas Questionable to Return (knee); PHI LS 45 R.Lovato being evaluated for a head injury; NO G 67 L.Warford Probable to Return

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.80 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model