4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 38 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 41-A.Kamara for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 13

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.84 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model