4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 45 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +4.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.08 EP