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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

OAK
53.4%
ARI
46.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.262 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.275 vs Derek Carr (LV) -0.041 EPA/dropback
  • LV defense: +0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

OAK 21
–
ARI 19
Projected margin: OAK by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

OAK

Martavis Bryant WR Out Knee
Jordy Nelson WR Out Knee
Gareon Conley CB Questionable Groin
Nick Nelson CB Questionable Illness
Kyle Wilber LB Questionable Knee

ARI

Budda Baker S Out Knee
Chad Williams WR Out Ankle
Phil Dawson K Questionable right Hip
Rudy Ford S Questionable Heel
Rodney Gunter DT Questionable Not Injury Related
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Calf
D.J. Humphries T Questionable Knee
Mike Iupati G Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 23
–
ARI 21

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:40 TD LV (12:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-J.Cook for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 06:19 TD ARI (6:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – ARI 6
  • Q1 00:27 TD ARI (:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 13-C.Kirk for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – ARI 13
  • Q2 08:25 TD LV (8:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 19-B.LaFell for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – ARI 14
  • Q3 10:31 FG LV (10:31) 8-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 17 – ARI 14
  • Q3 00:25 FG LV (:25) 8-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 20 – ARI 14
  • Q4 05:07 TD ARI (5:07) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 20 – ARI 20
  • Q4 00:02 FG LV (:02) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 23 – ARI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:43) 5-J.Townsend punts 48 yards to ARI 29, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:47) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to LV 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at LV 21 for 12 yards (32-D.Coleman).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:07) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to ARI 33, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 36 for 3 yards (85-D.Carrier; 23-N.Nelson).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:59) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to ARI 25, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 37 for 12 yards (50-N.Morrow; 58-K.Wilber).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 32%

    (4:17) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to ARI 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:13) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to LV 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, touched at LV 30, and recovers at LV 37. 30-J.Richard to LV 37 for no gain (47-E.Turner).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:11) 5-J.Townsend punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:08) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to LV 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 77%

    (10:31) 8-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:08) 2-A.Lee punts 28 yards to LV 35, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (:25) 8-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:41) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to LV 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LV 27 for 16 yards (29-C.Edmonds). LV-17-D.Harris was injured during the play.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.21 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 61%

    (7:48) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:50) 5-J.Townsend punts 52 yards to ARI 22, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 40 for 18 yards (25-E.Harris).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:16) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to LV 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-29-C.Edmonds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 98 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:50) 5-J.Townsend punts 47 yards to LV 49, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-C.Kirk to LV 44 for 5 yards (55-M.Lee).