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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 8-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.48 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model