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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to ARI 33, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 36 for 3 yards (85-D.Carrier; 23-N.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.10 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP