Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Arizona Cardinals 14

(2:11) 5-J.Townsend punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.28 EP
63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model