Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to LV 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LV 27 for 16 yards (29-C.Edmonds). LV-17-D.Harris was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model