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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.37 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.21 EP