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Houston Texans

7-3 HC Bill O'Brien
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Washington Commanders

6-4 HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 13:00 ET FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

HOU
55.2%
WAS
44.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • HOU on 7 more days rest than WAS
  • HOU offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

HOU 24 17–31
–
WAS 23 16–30
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 11

HOU

Aaron Colvin CB Questionable Ankle
Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Zach Cunningham LB Questionable Knee
Duke Ejiofor LB Questionable Shoulder
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Ankle

WAS

Jamison Crowder WR Out Ankle
Samaje Perine RB Out Knee
Chris Thompson RB Out Rib
Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Shin
Montae Nicholson S Questionable Illness
Dustin Hopkins K Questionable right Groin
Trent Williams T Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 23
–
WAS 21

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:35 FG HOU (9:35) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 3 – WAS 0
  • Q1 03:20 TD HOU (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – WAS 0
  • Q2 14:19 TD WAS (14:19) 26-A.Peterson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – WAS 6
  • Q2 02:38 TD HOU (2:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 86-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid [95-C.Covington] at HOU -1. 20-J.Reid for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – WAS 7
  • Q3 04:52 TD WAS (4:52) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short left to 86-J.Reed for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 17 – WAS 13
  • Q3 01:22 FG HOU (1:22) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. Penalty on WAS-35-M.Nicholson, Defensive Offside, declined. HOU 20 – WAS 14
  • Q4 12:02 TD WAS (12:02) 26-A.Peterson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – WAS 20
  • Q4 07:35 FG HOU (7:35) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 23 – WAS 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:17) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to HOU 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (9:35) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:41) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to HOU 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-D.Carter to HOU 31 for 16 yards (57-N.Sundberg, 56-Z.Vigil).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%

    (11:38) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to HOU 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-34-B.Marshall.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:28) 8-T.Daniel punts 30 yards to WAS 40, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 83%

    (:36) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (1:22) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. Penalty on WAS-35-M.Nicholson, Defensive Offside, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 36%

    (14:54) 78-A.Howard and 52-R.Anderson reported in as eligible. 12-C.McCoy left end to HOU 41 for 5 yards (25-K.Jackson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 62%

    (7:35) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 19 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:45) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to HOU 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 81%

    (:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 45 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 39%

    (:08) 3-D.Hopkins 63 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →