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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to HOU 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-D.Carter to HOU 31 for 16 yards (57-N.Sundberg, 56-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model