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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 51

Washington Commanders 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:38) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to HOU 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-34-B.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model