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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 36

Houston Texans 20 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.30 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model