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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 27

Houston Texans 23 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.42 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model