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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 26

Houston Texans 17 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:36) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.68 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model