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HC Pete Carroll
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

SEA
29.9%
LA
70.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.218 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): +0.290 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
LA 28
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

SEA

Neiko Thorpe CB Doubtful Groin
Chris Carson RB Questionable Hip
D.J. Fluker G Questionable Calf
Shamar Stephen DT Questionable Foot
Nazair Jones DT Questionable Illness
Jordan Simmons G Questionable Calf
Bradley McDougald S Questionable Knee
K.J. Wright LB Questionable Knee

LA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 31
–
LA 36

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:23 TD SEA (11:23) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-N.Vannett for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-N.Suh]. SEA 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 06:46 TD LA (6:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 81-G.Everett for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – LA 6
  • Q1 03:49 TD SEA (3:49) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – LA 7
  • Q2 14:53 FG LA (14:53) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 14 – LA 10
  • Q2 02:56 TD LA (2:56) 30-T.Gurley left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – LA 16
  • Q3 09:49 FG LA (9:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 14 – LA 20
  • Q3 04:27 TD SEA (4:27) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – LA 20
  • Q4 15:00 TD LA (15:00) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 21 – LA 26
  • Q4 09:56 FG SEA (9:56) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 24 – LA 26
  • Q4 07:39 FG LA (7:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 24 – LA 29
  • Q4 05:55 TD LA (5:55) 12-B.Cooks right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 24 – LA 35
  • Q4 02:00 TD SEA (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 27-M.Davis for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – LA 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (14:53) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 68 yards to LA 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Natson to LA 21 for 11 yards (36-A.King).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 31%

    (9:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-24-B.Countess, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to LA 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Natson to LA 24 for 11 yards (36-A.King). PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 24.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 48%

    (:26) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to LA 3, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 92%

    (9:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (9:56) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (7:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for 9 yards (52-R.Wilson).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 68%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett [99-A.Donald].