Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 10

(12:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 68 yards to LA 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Natson to LA 21 for 11 yards (36-A.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model