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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-24-B.Countess, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.67 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model