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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model