4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 2, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP