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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Thursday 2018-11-01 · 20:20 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

OAK
34.7%
SF
65.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Nick Mullens (SF): +0.108 EPA/dropback in prior starts (SF starting Nick Mullens in place of C.J. Beathard)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 19
–
SF 24
Projected margin: SF by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

OAK

T.J. Clemmings T Out Knee
Gareon Conley CB Questionable Foot
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee
Daryl Worley CB Questionable Shoulder

SF

Antone Exum S Out Concussion
Reuben Foster LB Out Hamstring
Jaquiski Tartt S Out Shoulder
C.J. Beathard QB Questionable right Wrist
Matt Breida RB Questionable Ankle
Pierre Garcon WR Questionable Shoulder
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Ankle
Weston Richburg C Questionable Knee
Richard Sherman CB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 3
–
SF 34

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:34 FG LV (9:34) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 3 – SF 0
  • Q1 06:53 TD SF (6:53) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 15-P.Garcon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at Oak 9. 9-YAC OAK 3 – SF 6
  • Q2 12:44 TD SF (12:44) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in end zone. 0-YAC OAK 3 – SF 13
  • Q2 00:21 FG SF (:21) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. OAK 3 – SF 17
  • Q3 12:40 TD SF (12:40) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at Oak 3. 3-YAC OAK 3 – SF 23
  • Q3 09:28 TD SF (9:28) 31-R.Mostert right end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – SF 30
  • Q4 04:03 FG SF (4:03) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. OAK 3 – SF 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (9:34) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:12) 5-J.Townsend punts 40 yards to SF 28, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-R.James pushed ob at SF 34 for 6 yards (55-M.Lee).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 19 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 32%

    (7:31) 5-J.Townsend punts 23 yards to SF 24, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-55-M.Lee.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 64 yards to LV 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:00) 5-J.Townsend punts 36 yards to SF 20, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-R.James.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%

    (:21) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:43) 5-J.Townsend punts 42 yards to SF 27, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-58-K.Wilber. PENALTY on LV-17-D.Harris, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 27.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:57) 5-J.Townsend punts 48 yards to SF 16, Center-47-T.Sieg. 18-D.Pettis to SF 24 for 8 yards (58-K.Wilber). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SF 16.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:30) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to LV 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 82%

    (13:26) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:49) 2-A.McCarron up the middle to LV 29 for no gain (99-D.Buckner).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (4:03) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 23%

    (1:51) 5-J.Townsend punts 36 yards to SF 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-R.James.