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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to LV 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP