Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 5-J.Townsend punts 42 yards to SF 27, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-58-K.Wilber. PENALTY on LV-17-D.Harris, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model