Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 5-J.Townsend punts 48 yards to SF 16, Center-47-T.Sieg. 18-D.Pettis to SF 24 for 8 yards (58-K.Wilber). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SF 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model