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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP