4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model