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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2018-10-28 · 21:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PHI
65.0%
JAX
35.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • JAX offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.028 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.177 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • PHI crossing 5 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
JAX 20
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

PHI

Nathan Gerry LB Out Ankle
Corey Graham S Out Hamstring
Sidney Jones CB Out Hamstring
Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Calf

JAX

A.J. Bouye CB Out Calf
Leonard Fournette RB Out Hamstring
James O'Shaughnessy TE Out Hip
Tyler Patmon CB Out Neck
D.J. Hayden CB Doubtful Toe

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 24
–
JAX 18

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:56 FG JAX (6:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PHI 0 – JAX 3
  • Q2 07:46 FG PHI (7:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 3 – JAX 3
  • Q2 02:48 FG JAX (2:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PHI 3 – JAX 6
  • Q2 00:38 TD PHI (:38) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 88-D.Goedert for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – JAX 6
  • Q3 08:48 TD PHI (8:48) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-W.Smallwood for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – JAX 6
  • Q3 04:38 TD JAX (4:38) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 12-D.Westbrook for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – JAX 12
  • Q4 13:14 FG JAX (13:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PHI 17 – JAX 15
  • Q4 10:00 TD PHI (10:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – JAX 15
  • Q4 07:00 FG JAX (7:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PHI 24 – JAX 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 66%

    (6:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to PHI 33, Center-45-M.Overton. 16-D.Carter to PHI 33 for no gain (53-B.Brown). PENALTY on PHI-32-R.Douglas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 33.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (7:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%

    (2:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:54) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to JAX 34, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-R.Greene to JAX 42 for 8 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill, 37-T.Sullivan).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 27%

    (13:48) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to PHI 5, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-55-L.McCray.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:22) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to JAX 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 48 for 23 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (13:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (7:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:14) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:26) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left end ran ob at JAX 40 for 4 yards (58-J.Hicks).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 19%

    (3:41) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Moncrief.