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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.76 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.66 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP