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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model