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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 6

Jacksonville Jaguars 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(7:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 6, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model