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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(13:48) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to PHI 5, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-55-L.McCray.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.57 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model