Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 18

(5:14) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.71 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model