Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.202 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- CIN offense: +0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.371 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC defense: +0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
CIN
KC
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 33 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:15 TD KC (8:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 27-K.Hunt for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – KC 6
- Q2 13:28 TD KC (13:28) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 27-K.Hunt for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – KC 13
- Q2 07:29 TD CIN (7:29) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – KC 14
- Q2 02:00 TD KC (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – KC 20
- Q2 00:11 FG KC (:11) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. CIN 7 – KC 24
- Q3 11:26 TD KC (11:26) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – KC 30
- Q3 11:19 TD KC (11:19) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 38-R.Parker at CIN 33. 38-R.Parker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – KC 37
- Q3 06:20 FG CIN (6:20) 4-R.Bullock 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 10 – KC 38
- Q4 12:56 TD KC (12:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes to CIN 8 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 8. 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – KC 44
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 58%
(13:43) 10-K.Huber punts 60 yards to KC 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 27 for 19 yards. PENALTY on KC-30-J.Shaw, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 10.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 24%
(3:42) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to KC 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 22 for 9 yards.
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Q1 KC 4th & 17 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 62%
(:44) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:56) (Punt formation) 42-C.Fejedelem FUMBLES (Aborted) at CIN 37, and recovers at CIN 33. 42-C.Fejedelem to CIN 33 for no gain (21-E.Murray).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:23) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.
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Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(:11) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%
(6:20) 4-R.Bullock 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 58%
(12:01) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to KC 19, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Robinson pushed ob at KC 30 for 11 yards (45-M.Jefferson). CIN-86-M.Schreck was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-30-J.Shaw, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at KC 19.
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Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 5 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(4:21) (Shotgun) 32-S.Ware left end to CIN 3 for 2 yards (36-S.Williams).