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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:44) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.91 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model