Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(14:56) (Punt formation) 42-C.Fejedelem FUMBLES (Aborted) at CIN 37, and recovers at CIN 33. 42-C.Fejedelem to CIN 33 for no gain (21-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.79 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model