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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to KC 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 22 for 9 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model