4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 10-K.Huber punts 60 yards to KC 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 27 for 19 yards. PENALTY on KC-30-J.Shaw, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP