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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 45 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(4:21) (Shotgun) 32-S.Ware left end to CIN 3 for 2 yards (36-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.33 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 5, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model