4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

TB
51.9%
CHI
48.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.079 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) +0.140 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TB

Beau Allen DT Out Foot
Vita Vea DT Questionable Calf
Marcus Williams CB Questionable Hamstring
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Groin
Jordan Whitehead S Questionable Shoulder

CHI

Prince Amukamara CB Out Hamstring
Marcus Cooper CB Out Hamstring
Anthony Miller WR Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 10
–
CHI 48

Prediction missed by 39 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:27 TD CHI (12:27) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 80-T.Burton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – CHI 6
  • Q1 02:18 TD CHI (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 12-A.Robinson II for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – CHI 13
  • Q2 15:00 FG TB (15:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – CHI 14
  • Q2 12:26 TD CHI (12:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CHI 20
  • Q2 09:05 TD CHI (9:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 15-J.Bellamy for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CHI 27
  • Q2 05:00 TD CHI (5:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 18-T.Gabriel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CHI 34
  • Q2 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 1-C.Parkey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. TB 3 – CHI 38
  • Q3 10:32 TD CHI (10:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 18-T.Gabriel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CHI 44
  • Q4 13:36 TD TB (13:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 84-C.Brate for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – CHI 45
  • Q4 06:28 FG CHI (6:28) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. TB 10 – CHI 48

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:01) 9-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CHI 24, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for 10 yards (48-J.Cichy; 32-J.Rodgers).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 17 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:28) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to TB 22, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Jackson to TB 29 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on TB-22-M.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:54) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to CHI 27, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 27 for no gain.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:55) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to CHI 33, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 43 for 10 yards (53-A.Taylor). PENALTY on CHI-84-B.Braunecker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 37.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:16) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CHI 30, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 72%

    (:03) 1-C.Parkey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to TB 38 for 4 yards (39-E.Jackson).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 32%

    (5:39) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to CHI 17, Center-89-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to TB 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 31.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 82%

    (14:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin to CHI 16 for 11 yards (58-R.Smith).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 80%

    (6:28) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.