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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to CHI 27, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 27 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model