Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

(11:01) 9-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CHI 24, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for 10 yards (48-J.Cichy; 32-J.Rodgers).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model