Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Chicago Bears 45

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to CHI 17, Center-89-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP

KICK -1.31 EP

32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model