Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 73

Chicago Bears 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to TB 22, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Jackson to TB 29 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on TB-22-M.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.65 EP
73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model