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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 32

Chicago Bears 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) 1-C.Parkey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model