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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

IND
36.1%
WAS
63.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Alex Smith (WAS) +0.130 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.173 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 20
–
WAS 25
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

IND

Denico Autry DT Out Ankle
Anthony Castonzo T Out Hamstring
Denzelle Good T Out Knee
Chris Milton CB Out Concussion
Clayton Geathers S Questionable Knee
Marlon Mack RB Questionable Hamstring
Grover Stewart DT Questionable Shoulder

WAS

Troy Apke S Out Hamstring
Paul Richardson WR Questionable Shoulder
Maurice Harris WR Questionable Concussion
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 21
–
WAS 9

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 TD IND (9:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 11:16 FG WAS (11:16) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. IND 7 – WAS 3
  • Q2 06:56 TD IND (6:56) 21-N.Hines up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – WAS 3
  • Q3 05:43 FG WAS (5:43) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. IND 14 – WAS 6
  • Q4 13:33 FG WAS (13:33) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. IND 14 – WAS 9
  • Q4 07:37 TD IND (7:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – WAS 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 42%

    (6:43) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to IND 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:09) 2-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to WAS 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 38 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin, 52-N.Goode).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 37%

    (1:08) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to IND 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-16-J.Chesson. PENALTY on IND-80-C.Rogers, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%

    (11:16) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:33) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on WAS-57-N.Sundberg, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 18.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:05) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:00) 5-T.Way punts 28 yards to IND 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:02) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 22%

    (10:47) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to IND 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (5:43) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:42) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to WAS 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:58) 2-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles up the middle to WAS 46 for 5 yards.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 68%

    (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 25-C.Thompson (53-D.Leonard).