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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 34

Washington Commanders 9 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 25-C.Thompson (53-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.84 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.20 EP