Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Washington Commanders 3

(1:02) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.16 EP
55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model